mathmatics of Golf

Question
Hi Ken,

I am very very new to Golf Handicap systems.  However, it seems to me that the handicap system insures the poorest players will (over time) always win more that the better players.  

They only have to do one thing. Improve at a greater and more consitant rate than their competitor.  Thus, while they may never play as well as their competition, they have - over time -  won the matches more, and perhaps much more often.

This is furthur compounded by the fact that handcaps are based on PAST performance. So consitant improvement, will result in consistant wins.  

It is also seems evident that at some point, improvement is physically impossible or is reduced.  Simply meaning, it seems entirely unlikely someone who is a scratch golfer could improve there scores by much strokes over time, but certinly more likley that a golfer who plays far worse will (given the same effort) increase there ability far more.

So, I ask you.  Assumeing I am a very very poor player, but play a better player every day for $ 10,000.00.  Will I not soon win a fortune if I only improve at a slightly faster and more consitant rate then he....even if I never get better than him?

Thank you

Answer
Hi Daniel,

Great questions and great hypotheses.

If a player's handicap was an "average" (arithmetic mean) of his/her scores, then I would be inclined to agree with your last statement, up to the point of no improvement.

Handicap, however, is not a simple average, but a skewed average. It is calculated by averaging not all the scores, but the best 10 of 20, meaning the worst scores do not count. As well, players can only count up to a maximum score on each hole (based on their handicap). A score of 10 on a hole, for instance, would only count as a 6.

Because of this skewed average and the fact that higher handicap players are not as consistent as lower handicap players, the lower handicap players would actually win more matches over the long term. There would be stretchs, though, where the high handicapper could be on a major streak of improvement in score, and win many matches.

If you're familiar with scoring in golf, you'll know that such a streak in improvement eventually ends and the scores go back up. Kind of like 2 steps forward, and 1 step, as one climbs the staircase of improvement.

I'll be addressing this issue in more detail in my next newsletter which should be published next week. Sign up for my newsletter at http://probablegolfinstruction.com/PGINewsletter/current.htm
in the left hand menu column, about half way down the page.

Hope this helps.

Best regards,
Ken Tannar