2K times over 4 years

Question
Hi,
How many seconds do you think I'll be able to drop off my 2K times over a 4-year period, if I train 3 seasons a year? I currently have a PR of 7:03.6 for 2000m, and am 6'2", 160lbs, and 14 years old. Thanks.

Answer
Hi Riley: You already have a time that is near the Top-10% for lightweights your age, which is excellent.  I expect you are not going to be a lightweight for long.  I'll guess you'll be between 190 and 200 by the time you are a senior.

To stay in the Top-10% for 17-18 year old heavyweights, you'll need to pull a 6:30.  That's spinning the wheel pretty fast; but based on your extraordinary potential, I think is quite doable for you.

Good Luck/AP